So the 2009 NFL season is finally upon us. This is an extremely exciting time in the sporting year. It marks the end of the dull, non-football summer. I was starting to feel a little pitiful watching replays of bygone eras on NFL Network. However the last month has been dedicated to getting us prepped for the season. I have come to one conclusion after watching all of this coverage; it’s going to be a weird year. With each new season it’s getting tougher to predict what might happen. That’s the magic of free agency I guess.

I think I have a pretty good feel for which teams are going to tank this season. It’s much easier to predict the losers than it is the winners. It looks like the worst team title will be slugged out by the Bills, the Chiefs, and the Rams. The Lions, I feel, are not going to repeat as the worst team in the league. They have made some good additions that will get them over the hump, so to speak. The Lions acquired some linebackers in the draft, signed Larry Foote (former Steeler), and they also improved their offensive line. Now that Matt Millen is gone the Lions appear to be making some better/smarter moves. They are addressing some of the positions they neglected for so long.

The Bills had a pretty bad off-season in terms of addressing issues. They completely neglected their offensive line in the draft as well as in the free agent market. Instead they went out and acquired TO in order to boost their offense. Apparently they don’t realize that you actually have to have an offensive line that blocks in order for your QB to have time to throw the ball. What good is TO if Trent Edwards is always on his back? The Bills defense might be the only chance they have, but even they aren’t that good. How long can you hold a team when you’re offense is constantly going 3 and out? Eventually those big bodies will wear down and the opposing team will dominate them.

Will the St. Louis Rams ever be good again? Not in the near future. They have a poor defense, but Spagnuolo should be able to help them out. They drafted a few defensive players, most notably James Laurinaitis from OSU, and an OT in the first round. It’s going to take more than one offensive lineman to protect their QB. I think Laurinaitis has the potential to be a very good linebacker, but I’m not sure that he will be a superstar. I’m just not sure that he has the size like an Urlacher, but I think he has the speed. He should be able to wreak some havoc because I think he’ll be seeing a lot of the opposing teams’ running backs.

The Chiefs are in a world of hurt. There’s no way the Chargers are not going to lose that division. The Broncos will probably finish second and the Raiders will probably finish third. I say “probably” because I figure it’s between the Broncos and Raiders for second and third. The Chiefs will finish dead last in their division. Their run defense looks to be pretty good, but what good is that when your pass defense is lousy? Likewise their pass offense is not very good. They have Bowe as their best receiver, but that’s about it. Losing Tony Gonzalez will (obviously) be devastating once the season starts. I really don’t think Matt Cassel will make any difference. They don’t have the players around him that will make him an elite QB anyway. So I think they should take their time getting him healthy and play Brody Croyle in the meantime.

For some reason I have been plugging the Saints since the end of last season. I think Sean Payton finally realized his mistake in the 2006 NFC championship game. The Saints pounded the ball all throughout the 2005-2006 season. For some reason he abandoned that game plan when they got in the NFC championship game. He ditched pounding with Deuce McCalister for featuring Reggie Bush. Reggie Bush is not a pounding running back. He should not be a huge part of their rushing game. They need to use him in the same capacity the Eagles use Brian Westbrook. The Eagles use screen passes as their running game. Reggie Bush needs to be given space to juke his defenders.

At the end of last season the Saints discovered Pierre Thomas and his great abilities at RB. Thomas can bust it up the middle or take it outside the tackles. He’s a much better blocker than Bush is and he’s a lot more durable. Using Thomas will open play action and screen passes for Bush and the rest of the receivers. There’s nothing wrong with using Reggie Bush as a receiver. I don’t think I would run the Wildcat with him though. Sooner or later teams are going to squash the Wildcat and will be out of the game for a while. The Saints have to run the ball to be successful. Their defense has improved, but they have to keep the D off the field to help them out.

The Colts are my favorite team, but I’m not very certain about their future. I really don’t know about the ability of Jim Caldwell as a head coach. I’ve heard a lot of good things about him, but he’s never coached a pro team. He had a huge losing record at Wake Forest in his tenure there, but I’m not sure how much stock I should put in that. At what point will Peyton Manning start to slow down? He has been great pretty much every season of his career, but that has to come to an end. If they don’t protect him it might be sooner rather than later. I’m really not sure that Joseph Addai is going to return to form. The addition of Donald Brown in the draft was a brilliant move. I think his arrival might get Addai back to form. They can use Brown (and Hart) to pound the defense and then put in Addai to finish it off. Just like they did with Rhodes and Addai in their Super Bowl season. They absolutely must run the ball in order to make it far in the playoffs.

They must also play every, single game. When they won the Super Bowl they played all 16 games. They didn’t rest any players during their 16th game like they usually do. They went into the playoffs in rhythm and rolled to the Super Bowl. It also did them some good to have to play in the first round that season. The Colts usually lose when they have a first round bye in the playoffs. That’s not really something they can control though.

The loss of Marvin Harrison is a great thing. I don’t care how good Marvin was before the knee injury. You can’t hold onto to players because of sentimentality. Look where that got them. They lost to the Chargers in two straight post seasons because they refused to address their speed at receiver, their shoddy offensive line, and their lackluster defense. Marvin cost them the playoff game against the Chargers in the 2007 playoffs with his pathetic fumble. I thought they should have cut him lose right after the game. But they kept him and he was pretty much useless last season as well. Anthony Gonzalez definitely made it clear that he is the number two receiver.

Therein lies the problem for the Colts though. Gonzalez is definitely a number two receiver, but Reggie Wayne is also a number two receiver. I know Reggie can make all the catches and gets a lot of passes, but he doesn’t have the speed of a number one guy. He lacks that breakaway speed of a Randy Moss or a Larry Fitzgerald. Plus he has the tendency to drop some easy passes.

Bob Sanders is a great Safety, but he cannot be the main cog in that defense. I’ve never seen a defense crumble like they do when Bob is injured. It opens up all sorts of trouble in their secondary. That in turn opens up trouble with their rush defense. They need a bigger Safety who is not going to kill himself by hitting so hard.

Having said all that I’ve said one thing is certain, it’s going to be a wild ride.